Reading The Wages of Wins by David J. Berri, Martin B. Schmidt, and Stacey L. Brook raised interesting questions regarding assessment and evaluation. Factions contributing to victories and the rational behind coaching decisions were studied among other issues. Statistics are more prolific than ever before but whether the numbers are correctly applied remains to be determined.
Scoring and wins
Fortunately, the authors scrutinized the Association extensively, finding that scoring is highly correlated to winning. Therefore coaches should play the five players who contribute to the highest scoring rate (who also limit the opponent’s scoring rate).
A player can affect points per possession by scoring more points and maintaining possession of the ball. Shooting efficiency, rebounding, steals, and turnovers are key variables. To keep the issue simple, I will deal with offensive factors and assume that the same issues are relevant on defence, but in reverse. A good defensive team should force the opponent to take tough shots, rebound the ball, and steal the ball when possible.
Apparently, rebounding (maintain possession with an offensive rebound and ending an opponent’s possession with a defensive rip) is better correlated to winning that actually putting the ball in the basked. Likewise, when calculate individual Win-Shares, preventing turnovers or causing opponents to turn the ball over permits a player to compensate for below average scoring ability.
Decisions
When awarding minutes and contracts, the authors found that coaches and general managers tend to view basketball as five 1-on-1 games instead of one 5-on-5 game and attribute too much weight to scoring. I thought that Berri, Schmidt, and Brook ignored the elements of leadership and chemistry. When variables become intangible, analysis becomes incredibly complicated.
Lingering questions that are not addressed by The Wages of Wins:
- What about the player who inspires teammates to work harder?
- Points lead to Win-Shares but who gets the Win-Share when a ball screen leads to a basket?
- Are there elements that permit a team to become greater than the sum of its parts?
I’ve studied this issue somewhat and found that it is possible to isolate successful combinations of players. The impact of leadership and player chemistry on a game that is played 5-on-5 in its finest form but can be isolated but film review, software like Dartfish, and comprehensive statistics are imperative.
Assists
Surprisingly, the assist statistic is largely negligible and not correlated to winning. I think it is still a positive occurrence because an assist or a pass that leads to an assist is unlikely to result in a turnover and will probably move the ball into a location from where a higher percentage shot can be taken.
Scoring “runs”
The authors dismiss the idea of momentum but a team that shortens oppoentn possessions by rebounding well, maintains control of the ball, and takes a good shots is likely to curtain runs by the opponent while simultaneous being predisposed to making runs of their own.
Irrespective of offensive skill the numbers and empirical evidence reveal that a team cannot give an opponent too many easy first (bad shots and turnovers that feed the fast break) and second (offensive rebounds) chances. “One and done”, “the ball is 24K gold”, “we’re fighting an uphill battle”, and other coaching aphorisms are entirely apropos when a team is losing control of the ball and the game.
The increased role of numbers and details guys
” Guys are sharing the ball and it looks good.”
– Mike D’Antoni
On the Phoenix Suns coaching staff, Mike D’Antoni often makes decisions by “feel” whereas Marc Iavaroni provides more tangible analysis and facts. Like the heroes of The Princess Bride combined the cunning of Westley, the strength of Fezzik, and the speed of Inigo Montoya, a multitude of perspectives are present on successful teams.