Pundits have made the Lakers favourites ahead of the Suns in the 2010 Western Conference Finals but I do not think that Phoenix’s predicament is as dire as it first seems. One of the main arguments in favour of Los Angeles is the matchups in the paint. In previous years, the Suns had lost because other teams outmanned them in the paint but I don’t think the matchups are that unfavourable.
Phoenix boasts a playoff defensive rebounding percentage of .757, compared to .717 for the Lakers. While San Antonio and Portland do not have an elite post rotation like Bynum, Gasol, and Odom, the Suns are still in good position because the entire team has been rebounding, not just the forwards.
Matchups may actually favour Phoenix. If Frye can make shots from the outside, one of Bynum or Gasol is going to have to follow him, leaving Amare Stoudamire guarded by a slower defender. In the previous two rounds, Phoenix’s opponent has changed their strategy and gone smaller in order to adapt to the Suns speed. Plus, the Suns screen and roll has been extremely effective in the fourth quarter during the postseason.
For whatever reason, Los Angeles is no longer going to the line as much as previous years – perhaps because Kobe Bryant’s injury has made him reluctant to draw contact – and their effective field goal percentage as suffered. Phoenix is getting to the line at a reasonable rate (although they could drive more). Their outside shooting has boosted their effective field goal percentage to .540.
Steve Nash has not had his best postseason but the team is structured so that he doesn’t have to carry them. During the playoffs, the Phoenix second unit has been more effective than their Los Angeles counterparts and have contributed significant Win Shares. Also, the Suns’ Pythagorean Win Formula predicts a record of 8-2, exactly what they have achieved. The Lakers’ formula predicts a lower number of wins (6.3) than they have earned. Perhaps their luck will continue or maybe the breaks will even out.
Subjectively, the Suns have been moving the ball better than the Lakers. Alvin Gentry has also inspired the team to play solid team defence. In the third quarter of the series with San Antonio, Phoenix used defensive pressure (especially from the second unit). Los Angeles is less than confident, as shown by Phil Jackson’s comments about how he feels that Nash carries the basketball. If Phoenix can score in transition or penetrate in the halfcourt, they could cause significant problems for Los Angeles’ weaker defenders.
This should be a long series. The Suns have a strong chance to beat the Lakers and like any of the final four teams a good opportunity to win the Association championship.