Association Finals have proved anticlimactic in recent memory; even the Spurs-Pistons and Rockets-Knicks series that went the distance were tedious and tiresome. Yet I have higher hopes for tonight’s game between the Lakers and Celtics.
None of the games in the series so far have been truly exciting. There have been excellent individual performances but no true back-and-forth battles between equal squads, like the 1984 or 1969 Finals. The series has been a disappointment but the increase in intensity shown in Game 6 offers a chance for redemption tonight. Both teams are banged up but others stepped forward, especially the Los Angeles bench and Shannon Brown. The Lakers’ defence finally turned the corner and I am optimistic that the Celtics can match them tonight.
Whilst I am wishing for an exciting game, Boston will have serious problems if the trends of Game 6 continue. Los Angeles recovered 30% of offensive boards and will only clean the glass further if Kendrick Perkins cannot play. Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis are both less effective getting defensive rebounds relative to Perkins. Andrew Bynum is also injured and although he did not contribute much on the scoreboard, he provided an interior presence which was supplemented by Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom’s rebounding.
Los Angeles had a massive advantage in Effective Field Goal Percentage, got to the line much more frequently, and scored a higher offensive rating, befitting a twenty point win. Games 4 and 5 showed how Boston was capable of winning these key categories but they will have to remain focused in the face of severe adversity. Worst yet, Don Nelson won’t be available to come off the bench and make a key shot.
When the Lakers get to the line and control their turnovers, they have won games convincingly. Kobe should be willing to participate in the Triangle Offence and other bench players seem ready to contribute (keep the ball out of Ron Artest’s hands). If their defence holds as well, they should win by fifteen to twenty points.