“Happiness is the smell of a new car. It’s freedom from fear. It’s a billboard on the side of a road that screams with reassurance that whatever you’re doing is OK. You are OK.”
– Don Draper
Smart move for a small market, catastrophe for a contender, reality in the new collective bargaining agreement … Oklahoma City’s trade of James Harden in order to avoid harsh luxury tax penalties sparked debate (and a copious number of players who simply tweeted “wow” or “is this for real?”). The Thunder traded the Sixth Man of the Year – who is also an All-Star and a Dream Team member – for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and two protected first round draft picks. OKC can say that got something instead of nothing (or at least more than Orlando received for Dwight Howard) but they won’t be able to determine whether they are any closer to happiness until they loss can be quantified.
OKC’s chance to repeat was if their core trio jelled and learned from their mistakes. The 2011 Miami Heat team could not work with each other during crunch time and sets would degenerate into poor isolation basketball and low percentage jumpshots. Once thee 2012 team understood that they needed to be more aggressive (LeBron taking over in the post), maximize their advantage (position-less play) and take more high percentage shots (cutting as the defense helps and kicking the ball to open shooters), they metamorphosed into a squad as daunting as the 1991 Chicago Bulls. Harden-Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook needed to experience this same epiphany.
The last two Finals were decided by a handful of defensive plays as well. The Heat could not stop the Mavericks screen and roll or Dirk Nowitzki in the fourth quarter. Last year, they defense was so athletic, they could dictate what the opponent would do. Dwyane Wade would deny Durant the ball so he rarely had a chance to make plays. I think the Thunder were hungry enough to adapt and make changes too. Durant would have learned to cut and get open in a variety of ways, Westbrook would have distributed the ball more and Harden would develop his reads when he was unable to get to the rim off the ballscreen. There was room for the rest of the team to grow as well.
Owners who succeed in professional sports derive a psychological benefit from their teams, not just an economic one. Barry Zito’s $126M contract doesn’t hurt anymore because he helped San Francisco win the 2012 World Series. The best owners are sheiks, oil barons and entrepreneurs who are quirky but not crazy (those guys inherit their father’s media company, start their own band and hire Isiah Thomas). Bankers and corporations are the worst owners because they will never value the beauty of the game as much as the bottom line.
Teams like the Giants and the St. Louis Cardinals know to treasure each title because it may be two years, five years, twenty-four years or fifty-six years before the next one. Did the Thunder close their championship window themselves? It’s hard to say but did Dallas think they’d tip off the second season after a title with a lineup so depleted from the one that claimed a championship (Kidd-Barea-Marion-Nowitzki-Chandler became Collison-Mayo-Marion-Brand-Wright one bad break at a time)?
“This never happened. It will shock you how much it never happened.”
– Don Draper
The Thunder would have paid the luxury tax but this has never stopped any small market from doing so (Sacramento, Minnesota, San Antonio) when they felt that they could contend. The limiting factor is always talent (except when Robert Sarver is involved), not money. Talent would have made money (everyone would be wearing Thunder jerseys and the squad would be featured on national television every week for the next decade. In this regard, the trade is similar to the New York Knicks’ decision not to match the Jeremy Lin deal. The money each team would have been rolling in would more than pay for the luxury tax.
“This never happened. It will shock you how much it never happened.”
– Don Draper
After years of choosing wisely, OKC General Manager Sam Presti went ahead and crossed the seal by trading Harden and is about to drop the Holy Grail through the crevice in the temple floor. Can he improvise and recover with Kevin Martin? Conceivable but unlikely. Instead of making a “Big Four” out of their four recent Top Five picks, OKC has turned two of them into Kevin Martin and Kendrick Perkins.
To discuss the rest of the deal in 2012 terms:
- The Thunder will win sixty games and claim the Northwest division easily but this was never in doubt;
- Jeremy Lamb will not be a factor in this postseason; he might may make a key shot or two but will not wreak the same havoc Harden did in the first three rounds of the recent playoffs;
- The Raptors draft pick is protected and will be thirteenth to twentieth by the time the Thunder get it; and
- The Mavericks pick is Top Twenty protected until 2017.
Are the Heat, Spurs, Celtics and Lakers more or less worried than they were a week ago?
This appears to be a net loss in the short-term because OKC will not make the Finals and beat the Heat with Westbrook dribbling at the top of the key as Martin and Durant run “Floppy” to get open. Martin does not get to the rim as much as Harden and does not draw the same amount of fouls. K-Mart will not add much three-point shooting but will improve shooting from mid-range. But, if the Thunder were to develop, wasn’t this scoring that would have been provided by Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Eric Maynor and Percy Jones III (assuming they wanted to improve as much as the three starts)? OKC maintains all of their mid-level exceptions with this deal but who is out there who can fill those role player roles better than the young athletes already there?
OKC lost in the Finals because they could not get enough stops. Ibaka and Perkins were sluggish on their recovery and the team was confused when helping, which led to slow rotation and open passing lanes. Could this have been better improved by coaching three top twenty athletes to truly work together with their teammates, making stops instead of flops and raising a defensive rebounding rate that was twenty-third overall, or seeking help from a weak defender and a rookie? At this point in their respective careers, James would destroy Lamb and Wade has always torched less explosive wings like Martin.
OKC’s youth gives them a chance and as the Mavericks showed, a team can come close to a ring for a decade before finally breaking through in an unexpected manner. This incarnation of the Thunder may create a stronger second unit or convert their flexibility into a trade that leads to a title. Most fans are disappointed because Durant, Westbrook and Harden were elite players who relished the chance to play the game and play together. They wanted OKC to run it back in 2013. They wanted them to match offers for Harden and amnesty Perkins to create a dynasty. They wanted the little guy to win.
“What is happiness? It’s a moment before you need more happiness.”
– Don Draper
Taking a long-term view, let’s assume that Jeremy Lamb reaches his potential as a 6-11 shooter who blends into position-less play and guards positions 2, 3, and 4. His skills overlap Durant somewhat, like how Harden provided some redundancy to Westbrook, but you can always need more shooting. The core of the Thunder are still young so in four years, Lamb will be approaching a max contract. OKC will slot Durant and Westbrook into their two five year slots and can only offer Lamb a four year deal. If the Thunder is to flourish, Ibaka will have to have earned his huge contract and will be ready to ask for another one. Someone like PJ3 will have become a critical rotation guy and ready to enter free agency.
Even if this deal pans out, the Thunder will be in this same position in four years except that we won’t know if they made the Finals again. If money trumps everything else in “The OKC Model,” all of these players will ask for max deals and force Presti to trade them. The model could crumple like the 1977 Rip City Blazers, but without the title claimed by that feel-good outlier. You can have a fun team with a cast of young players who are selfless, energetic and interchangeable and make the playoffs (like the Denver Nuggets today) but you can’t win without stars. OKC had three stars but refused to pay the price for all of them to become a trio of superstars.