Game 1 showed that Oklahoma City had the talent to pressure Miami on defense and score explosively at the other end as the Thunder overwhelmed the Heat in the second half. Game 2 showed that OKC had yet to overcome some of their mental errors as they were not ready to compete and gave up a 16-2 run to start the game. The postseason has shown that they have the talent to win, but Game 3 showed that championship basketball is played in a very narrow zone, between too much or too little intensity.
Oklahoma City played like a dysfunctional pickup squad. Despite the fact that the team plays its best offensively when more team members are involved in the play, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and James Harden took turns forcing the play, committing several turnovers and triggering multiple one-and-done possessions. Other team members stood back and watched, giving the ballhandler few viable options as they were pushed towards the sideline and into double-teams.
It’s hard to score against athletic defenders like Miami who can exert excellent pressure when they are motivated but it becomes even harder when one tries to go alone against multiple defenders. Team offense beats team defense. When Westbrook and Durant run a 1-3 screen, they look for a mismatch if the opponent switches. When Serge Ibaka comes high for the jumpshot or Kendrick Perkins crashes the offensive glass after Harden drives, Oklahoma City gets points. When a player drives with their head down or settles for an outside shot, OKC settles.
The Heat play their best when they attack early in the shot clock and try to get baskets in the paint and the same is true for the Thunder. Effective field goal percentage and total points drop as the shot clock winds downs. Durant may be one of the best shooters ever but he is most efficient when he combines his smooth shot with an explosive drive. Westbrook can get to the rim in no time flat and possesses a killer pull-up jumpshot but his “stop the ball, dribble everywhere and step behind the line as the shot clock expires” three-pointer is less accurate. OKC would also be better served to move the ball, wear down the defense and aim to score more assisted baskets. Points in the paints will win most of the games in this series, which I still believe can go seven games (although without changes it may end in five).
The problems continue on the other end of the court as well. Ibaka can make a significant impact by blocking shots but he can get caught watching the ball, letting weak-side players such as Shane Battier blast-cut to the top of the key and shoot open three-point shots. A large athletic body, he can also contribute by closing the paint, moving into passing lanes and rebounding. Going into the series, it seemed as if Oklahoma City’s big rotation (Ibaka-Perkins-Collison) would be more reliable than whoever won Erik Spoelstra’s post playing time lottery. Now, they look slow and are not involved in the play, except for Nick Collison’s energy on defense.
Metta World Peace tweeted that Harden was “all beard [and] no brains” and based on the sixth man’s defensive play, this may be true. Michael Jordan was an amazing defender who would steal the ball if the opponent was careless; rotating to double Karl Malone in the post and knock the ball loose decided Game 6 of the 1998 Finals as much as his step-back jumper. Jordan would never flop – because he was accustomed to the rough style of the early 1990s and it was contrary to his competitive nature – but it seems to have become Harden’s best defensive maneuver. He would be better served to focus on ball pressure and rebounding as lapses in those area put points on the board for Miami.
Storms occur when Heat causes water to evaporate. As water vapour rises in the atmosphere, it cools and condenses. The air mass becomes unstable and convection clouds form, leading to a Thunder storm. It can take a few days for this to occur, so hopefully OKC can get on the same page in order to win a game on the road and return home for Games 6 and 7, where Miami will face a lot of high pressure.
Miami was up 2-1 in 2011 before losing to Dallas; Oklahoma City must hope that their veterans, Derek Fisher, Nazr Mohammed, Perkins and Collison, can provide the stability they need at the moment. The young team is too frenetic and mental errors have occurred because of lapses in concentration and adrenalin overloads. Pressure the ball and force Miami to take outside shots, score in transition when possible, attack early and often but understand risk vs. reward and what makes a good shot. If the Thunder’s eight-man rotation can all contribute, they could beat the unstoppable force of LeBron James like the Mavericks did last year.