On Wednesday, the Toronto Raptors began their sixteenth season by losing to the New York Knicks at home. New York amassed a significant lead and Toronto’s second unit chipped away until the team was able to claim a single point lead in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, Amare Stoudamire was able to gain excellent position in the paint and score repeatedly turning the tide in favour of the Knicks.
Many fans have taken the opportunity to cast aspersion upon the squad though they can react with indignation all they want and the Raptors will carry on without them. It’s certainly more likely that the Raptors will be very bad instead of really good and it even seems most unlikely that they will be average. Conversations contain too many “they should” or “I wish” or “they just suck” followed by analysis that is too superficial. Vegas pundits or the quants at Wages of Wins wouldn’t disagree but they support their argument with more facts.
So many said that Andrea Bargnani had a breakout game, scoring twenty-two point but how many points did he allow, permitting Stoudamire to catch the ball close to the basket, arriving late to help, or forcing Toronto to employ strange match-ups because he could only guard New York’s fifth best player? Jay Triano commented during an interview that Bargnani puts more pressure on himself than the coaching staff does. Whoever is to blame, there has not been enough pressure because the lump of coal is not yet a diamond despite playing in his fifth Association season.
The last play of the game was disastrous. Some may say that the entire game was disastrous but this play was poor from the original concept to the final execution. There were eleven seconds on the clock and Toronto ran a three-point sets that takes about five seconds to develop. Since a missed long-distance shot takes about three seconds to recover – offensive rebounding percentage is about one in five, less if Bargnani is playing – this was Toronto’s last chance.
That play (Jarrett Jack drives with his right hand along the baseline before kicking the ball to a shooter on the weak-side) works. Kevin O’Neill ran it about seven years ago:
- Morris Peterson inbounded to Vince Carter on the strong-side
- As Carter attracted the entire defence as he drove around the top of the key, he kicked it to Peterson along the line of 45°
- Peterson then missed the open look, but he was wide open.
The shooter may have been more open in 2002 than yesterday despite the identical result.
Although it works, it takes a long time to develop and works optimally when the offensive team is down two points with five seconds remaining. In this situation, there was too much time on the clock for a single play and not enough time for the Raptors to go two-for-one. Even if Leandro Barbosa had made the shot (the pass was off-target slightly and Barbosa needed to reset his feet so that when he finally shot it, there was a defender in his face and he had to fade away), the Knicks would have had an opportunity to win the game with three seconds left.
A number of shooters getting open in sequence within a two to three second time span would have been more effective. Had Toronto tied the game, they could have given the foul to disrupt New York’s final play, played tough defence, and headed to overtime.
The Raptors lost a horribly hideous game and on the surface it does not bode well for the next eighty-one games. Most of the game was ghoulishly frightening but there were moments that suggest it’s not worth giving up yet.